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11. Finance and Business Analytics · Business Projects · 45 min

16. Project: Coffee Shop Financial Model

Lesson 16 of 16
Task 1 of 6
  1. In E2:E4, pull in the assumptions of the active scenario (the number in J1) with INDEX or CHOOSE.

Lesson theory

The track's final project: a six-month model of a coffee shop that you would not be embarrassed to show an investor or a bank. It combines everything you have learned: scenarios, the P&L, cash flow, and unit economics.

  • The scenario table B2:D4 and the switch J1. Column E holds the active scenario's assumptions via INDEX or CHOOSE;
  • common parameters in J2:J6: cost of goods, fixed costs (rent + payroll), the tax rate (a practice number), the startup investment, days per month;
  • month by month: cups grow by the growth rate, revenue = cups × ticket × days, and tax applies only to profit;
  • cumulative cash flow starts at minus the startup investment. The month it turns positive is the payback period;
  • unit economics: the margin per cup and the break-even point in cups per day.

No assumption numbers inside formulas: everything goes through cell references (anchor them with $). The check accepts the model only if every figure recalculates when J1 is switched to 1, 2 and 3.

Simplifications: depreciation and loss carry-forwards are ignored, and tax is calculated monthly. That is fine for a teaching model; for a real one, talk to an accountant.

Test yourself

1. In the base case, in which month does the cumulative cash flow first turn positive?
2. Why is the break-even point rounded up instead of with a normal ROUND?
3. How do you check that the model is really scenario-driven?

Practice is part of Pro

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